Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD ahead in opinion polls

The tennis hall in the suburb of Demmin is well filled. The AfD’s 250 delegates met at the party conference and prepared for state elections on September 20, 2026. Until a few years ago, the CDU’s “Political Ash Wednesday” was held here, and Chancellor Angela Merkel was a frequent guest.

Two dozen demonstrators protested loudly in front of the hall, police were on standby. The hotel next door distributed leaflets to media representatives asking them not to be associated with events at the tennis hall.

The AfD party conference started half an hour late with a proposal, to the surprise of many, to elect a secretary general, which does not yet exist. Many delegates spoke, most of them explaining that the district associations were so well organized that these positions were not necessary for the election campaign. The proposal was rejected.

The next vote went smoothly: Leif-Erik Holm would be selected as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister and would be elected, without any votes against.

Holm currently sits in the Bundestag for her party. His constituency is the state capital Schwerin, which is also the constituency of Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD). If he does not win his constituency outright, he will remain in Berlin and a second top candidate is available: Enrico Schult. Dual leadership with ambitious goals: absolute majority.

The AfD’s confidence is justified: according to the latest survey (Infratest dimap/NDR, September 2025), the party is clearly ahead. The SPD only got half the vote.

Schwesig, who is currently in coalition with the Left Party, referred to the catch-up efforts he made in the last election campaign and replied: “I don’t work for the AfD, it doesn’t matter to me who is the top candidate, but I am making my own offer to society.” Content offers and personnel offers. “With me as Prime Minister.”

But forming a government could be complicated for Schwesig. According to the survey, there is currently only one coalition option for those without AfD: with the CDU and BSW.

The CDU’s main candidate, state chairman Daniel Peters, does not want to rule this out. However, the purpose of the election is different. He wants to take over the SPD and form his own government. However, without “radical forces” such as the Left Party and AfD.

“Firewall” represents him, although he does not simply receive approval from his base regarding the AfD. In 2021, the CDU achieved the worst result in its history, at 13 percent, and today the figure will not be better than that.

Six parties are currently represented in the Schwerin state parliament. Apart from the SPD, AfD and CDU, there is the Left Party which has two female ministers in the red-red coalition and according to surveys will slightly improve the results of the 2021 elections. In addition, there is the Green Party, which is barely able to re-enter the party, and the FDP, which is no longer able to pass the five percent hurdle.

Ten months before the state election, no decision has been taken. Surveys are not election results, says Rostock political scientist Wolfgang Muno in an interview with dpa. Nevertheless: This election “will likely be a crossroads regarding how democracy will develop 36 years after unity and the first freely elected state government in MV.” Nothing has been decided yet. But the signs point to a storm ahead in the election campaign.