There Russia he put patches everywhere. Ukrainian drone attack on oil refinery Russia’s inland regions had the desired effect: in order not to declare the collapse of the entire fuel market, they were forced to draw on reserves accumulated over the years. In fact, production is experiencing a slight decline every year, ‘only’ 3% lower than in 2024, but to achieve this they will have to reduce Moscow’s wealth. This was a desperate move from those who realized they had lost too much.
Ukrainian attack
Ukraine’s offensive deep in the heart of the Kremlin, up to 2,000 km across the border, has been going on for months. Kiev had begun directing its drones at oil refineries in the first months of the year, but only since August has the tactic turned into Ukraine’s main offensive strategy. And the attacks are intensifying in an effort to cripple the main source of money Moscow used to finance its invasion of Ukraine. In fact, between scheduled maintenance activities and the Ukrainian incursion, 20% of refining capacity is idle: from January to October 2025, oil processing fell to around 220 million tons, compared to last year. This news was reported by Reuters thanks to a statement from an internal source, considering that Russia no longer publishes data on this topic.
Production decline
The Kremlin has drastically reduced fuel exports and ordered additional anti-drone air defenses. Despite being in a critical situation, Russia managed to reduce processing by only 3%. To do this, they take advantage of capacity that has been unused for years and set it aside to anticipate critical situations, such as the one currently occurring. The refineries were operating below capacity before the attacks and managed to collect large amounts of oil bonuses. This is necessary not only on systems that are damaged (and then repaired quickly thanks to spare parts imports from friendly China), but also on systems that are not affected. In short, a very critical situation.
How far Moscow can go
The International Energy Agency said that Russian revenues from sales of crude oil and petroleum products in August reached their lowest point since the start of the war in 2022. Exports have been reduced by sanctions and Western countries’ choice not to buy more Russian fuel, but also by the fact that if Moscow continues to export then they could run out of money (again). The Kremlin continues to insist that the fuel market is stable and Moscow will never give in to pressure from other countries. But the situation is getting worse and what will happen if residents run out of energy to power their homes or run industrial production? And most importantly, what could happen if another country, equipped with more incendiary weapons, attacked Russia’s oil refineries, given that Ukraine’s small, low-cost drones alone have managed to significantly weaken a major sector of the Greater Russian economy?
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