After three consecutive years of climate negotiations hosted by authoritarian regimes, the return of the COP summit to a democracy could not come at a more decisive time. When world leaders gather in Belém for COP30 this week, they will enter a country that has championed both authoritarianism and environmental collapse, a reminder that democracy delivers where despotism destroys.
Just a few years ago, Brazil was on the brink. Under the leadership of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, the Amazon has burned at a record pace as democratic institutions have buckled under relentless attacks. Bolsonaro has gutted environmental agencies, cut enforcement programs and mocked climate science. By 2021, deforestation in the Amazon had reached its highest annual level in a decade, and the world feared that the rainforest could pass an irreversible tipping point.
Then Brazilians voted for a different future. President Lula da Silva returned to power with a promise to restore both the environment and democracy. Within a year, deforestation in the Amazon fell dramatically as environmental programs and control regulations were reinstated. Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court later convicted Bolsonaro of plotting to stay in power after losing the 2022 election, a rare and powerful reminder that climate integrity and democratic integrity actually rise and fall together.
Now, as Brazil hosts COP30, it is leading by example. The Lula government focuses on three priorities that embody progressive values: strengthening multilateral cooperation; linking climate goals to social and economic transitions; and accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. These are not just diplomatic talking points, but a reminder that democracies can still achieve and lead the green transition.
Progressive leaders who arrive in Belém will do so in the shadow of a dangerous global context. Across the world, far-right autocrats and populists are waging a coordinated attack on both climate ambitions and democratic norms, exploiting legitimate economic anxieties and turning them against climate action. They present climate policy as an elite project that kills jobs, raises prices and weakens national sovereignty, while at the same time defending the fossil fuel status quo that benefits the few and punishes the many. The goal isn’t just to block climate policy: it’s to corrode trust in democracy itself.
From Washington, D.C. to Buenos Aires to Budapest, this narrative has taken hold. In the United States, Trump has canceled major climate initiatives by promising “drill, baby, drill.” In Europe, far-right parties are vowing to abolish green standards, arguing that they protect ordinary people from climate regulations. Even leaders who know best are toning down their climate agendas, fearful of losing working-class voters to a populist backlash.
The result is a race to the bottom, which risks undoing the fragile progress made since the Paris Agreement. The message from the far right is deceptively simple: climate policy costs too much.
But it’s false. Clean energy is now the cheapest energy in history. Renewable energy is insulating homes from fossil fuel price shocks. Diversifying energy resources can improve grid reliability and help consumers save money during extreme periods of heat and cold. And any delay in the transition only makes inflation and instability worse, rather than better.
The good news is that people still believe in progress. Surveys from Global Progress Action and Datapraxis show strong demand for courageous, risk-taking leadership who can make real change in their daily lives. Furthermore, people continue to believe in democracy and reject the politics of unaccountable strongmen. People want policies that reduce their bills, secure their jobs and strengthen their communities – and climate action can do these things as well as secure a future for our children and their children. This is a progressive mandate waiting to be seized.
COP30 offers progressive leaders the chance to demonstrate that climate action is a driver of growth and prosperity in democratic societies, not a hindrance to them. The evidence is on their side. In Spain, electricity prices have fallen by 50% since 2018 thanks to the growth of solar and wind.
Globally, clean energy jobs grew 3.8% in 2023, far outpacing the rest of the economy. Renewable energy systems make communities more resilient in the face of extreme heat, storms and geopolitical shocks.
As Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said at the 2025 Global Progress Action Summit, progressives must fight far-right narratives with facts, but also with the vision to demonstrate that the path to reduced costs and greater security lies through, not away from, climate action. In Belem, progressives must demonstrate that climate leadership is the national force – providing cheaper energy, more jobs and safer communities, while upholding the values that autocrats fear most: transparency, accountability and solidarity.
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