There German and it United Kingdom has raised awareness regarding the increasing threat posed by Russian and Chinese space satellites which was seen spying on satellites used by Western countries. In recent weeks both countries have reported frequent cases of the disease Russia harass, annoy, and interfere with its satellites in space. “Russia’s actions, especially in space, represent a major threat to us all. A threat we can no longer ignore,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said last September at a conference in Berlin with space industry leaders. According to global think tank Rand, attacks on communications satellites could impact satellite imagery, telecommunications and broadband internet access via satellites. Disrupting navigation and positioning systems can impact military and civil aviation operations. This warning comes after Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine, which is now entering its third year. Ukrainian officials say Moscow has increased its level of cooperation with China, with Beijing operating reconnaissance satellites of Ukrainian territory on its behalf.
THE CONTEXT
Officials and experts, as reported by CNN, claim that two Russian surveillance satellites were recently seen tracking two IntelSat satellites, which are used by the German armed forces and their allies. IntelSat is a commercial satellite services provider whose fleet is used by governments and businesses in the United States and Europe. “In recent years, Russia and China have rapidly expanded their space warfare capabilities: they can jam, blind, manipulate or kinetically destroy satellites,” added one official, announcing a billion-dollar increase in funding for Germany’s space program. The head of UK Space Command has also raised the alarm, saying that Russian satellites are spying on British assets in space and harassing them “on a weekly basis”. “They have payloads that can look at our satellites and try to gather information from them,” Major General Paul Tedman told the BBC last month. Jamming is carried out using terrestrial infrastructure. Russia spent years developing electronic warfare capabilities during the war in Ukraine.
DISCLOSURE
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned again this year about Russia’s plans to develop nuclear weapons in space to disable and destroy satellites. Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated that Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space. But Russia also vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling on member states not to develop space-based nuclear weapons by 2024. China abstained from the vote. In general, it is relatively easy for space forces to detect and locate foreign satellites, but it is difficult to determine their exact capabilities and purpose. According to expert Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace security project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, authorities make assumptions about the Russian satellite’s purpose based on its position in space, other nearby areas, and historical patterns of what similar satellites have done. For example, if a Russian satellite remained near a European communications satellite for an extended period of time, authorities could conclude that it was there to spy.
Experts believe that a Russian satellite approaching two IntelSat satellites partly used by Germany was there to intercept the signal. Meanwhile, in lower orbit, Russian satellites have been testing “things that look like weapons and shooting projectiles,” Swope told CNN. Authorities can identify satellites that appear similar to projectile-equipped satellites to determine whether they pose a physical threat to other countries’ resources. “Russia has a tradition of making these types of satellites follow other satellites, so much so that one might think they are dormant cells, ready to attack at the last minute,” Swope said. And he added: “It is very difficult to distinguish between threats in terms of weapons and threats in terms of intelligence gathering, sometimes there is too much speculation about the capabilities of satellites and the intentions of their operators.” The Russian space agency has in the past downplayed the dangers of testing its weapons in space.
THREAT
Germany and Britain are the latest countries to sound the alarm. The United States and France raised the alarm more than a decade ago, claiming that Russian satellites appeared to be spying on and collecting information on their assets, including those operated for commercial purposes. The US Department of Defense said in 2015 that a Russian military satellite had positioned itself near two Intelsat satellites, prompting the US to contact Moscow about its movements, which many described at the time as “mysterious”. Then, in 2017, after France and Italy jointly launched an intelligence satellite, Russian satellites quickly joined in on the reconnaissance, according to Juliana Suess, a security policy researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). “So, this kind of behavior is not entirely new, but I think it also needs to be looked at in the context of Ukraine and in the context of the airspace violations that we see Russia committing against NATO airspace,” Suess told CNN regarding recent reports of espionage and satellite interference. “All of these phenomena must be seen in a broader context.”
CHINA
According to CNN experts, China’s threat is as big as Russia’s, or even bigger. Although the threat from Russia is more pressing for Europe because of its proximity, “the much larger space power is clearly China,” Suess said. Analysts have noted some of China’s advanced maneuvers in space aimed at approaching other satellites, “at incredibly high speeds and with a precision that I think really baffles some people in the West. According to SWP analysts, China’s skill capabilities have raised international concerns. For example, China has tested a satellite equipped with a robotic arm that can move other satellites into different orbits. China also has “a lot more money to operate in space,” Suess said. «Right now we’re not going to see much space growth from Russia. Their resources are too limited for this.” According to Swope, a CSIS analyst, Beijing’s activities in space are intense and its objectives unclear. “We don’t always know what they’re doing, and they’re doing so many different things that it’s confusing,” Swope added.
EU RESPONSE
Germany said it would allocate up to 35 billion euros ($40.2 billion) over the next five years for space projects. “It’s certainly a high number. I think it also reflects a kind of political will to catch up and, you know, really make things work,” Suess said. But he also emphasized that the space race is an ongoing process, with no finish line in sight. “Europe as a whole has a lot to catch up on. Germany certainly has a lot to catch up on.” A German Defense Ministry spokesperson told CNN that space-related procurement measures will amount to around 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) in 2025, “but will grow significantly in the coming years.” The UK government has also announced a commitment to increase defense spending this year and a strategic review of UK capabilities highlighted that “more attention needs to be paid to the space, cyber and electromagnetic sectors”. In October, the UK announced it was testing sensors to detect laser threats in space, as part of measures to protect British satellites. But analysis by London-based think tank Chatham House argues that greater investment is needed in the short term and that the strategic review fails to recognize how urgent the threat in space is, putting the country at risk of being left behind. Meanwhile, France has been “very vocal about the need to have what they call “escort satellites,” that is, satellites whose job it is to “protect other satellites,” Swope said. What these satellites will look like, he added, is still an open question, given ongoing developments.
Nato
In 2019, NATO declared space an “operational domain” for the transatlantic alliance and years later announced that Article 5 would also apply to space. Article 5 establishes the principle that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all members. However, Rand analysts argue that NATO must “accelerate” its space initiatives or risk failure at a critical moment. While these delays are truly worrying, especially when compared with China’s progress, there is also evidence that Russia has not yet integrated its satellite systems into its military infrastructure, as many other space powers have done. Suess cited the example of a Russian fighter jet shot down in Ukraine that was found to have an integrated Russian navigation system but also a commercial GPS installed in the dashboard. Analysts also see evidence that Russia buys commercial satellite imagery from the private market, suggesting its capabilities are not up to par. “We have seen from anecdotal evidence in Ukraine that Russia does not have the normally expected level of confidence in its own system,” Suess added.
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