Voting is closed Chile and enter Ecuadorbut the game was open: the right side did not break through this time, and the wind Donald Trump stop in Quito. But let’s put it in order: Chile’s left wing, led by communists Jeannette Jarawon 26% of the vote and promised to strengthen institutions, but embraced the security discourse to resist ultraliberal advances José Antonio Kaststuck at 24%, and the general right, which took control of Congress (90 seats to 64), awaits the second round.
At the same time, Ecuador dealt a major blow to its president Daniel Noboawhere more than 60% of voters said “no” to the return of the election US military base in the country and the opening of the Constituent Assembly and 53% said they opposed reducing parliamentarians. Again, reality belies predictions, bookmakers and surveys, whereas forecasts do not Polymarket they gave Kast a 73% probability of victory, which has now been partly reduced, and polls predicted a 60% “Yes” answer for the US military base in Ecuador and the Noboa Constituent Assembly.
The context. In Chile and Ecuador, election debates have been monopolized by rising voter turnout security crisiscaused by emergence transnational crime and from migration problemswhich has undoubtedly reinforced feelings of fear and xenophobia among the general electorate. And in both cases, the United States positions itself as the same party military partners to contain criminals and an ideological reference point in the anti-migration perspective, thanks to the scourge of Venezuelan gangs “Train to Aragua“, who often leaves his signature in Santiago de Chile and Quito.
US in the election campaign. There was a lot of interference from Washington and the US Treasury Secretary Scott Whatever who commented on the election designation as a “historic opportunity to create alliances in Latin America” in line with Argentina’s midterm elections and Rodrigo Paz’s victory in Boliviaexpect the same result in Chile. In turn, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Christopher Landau argued that, under the govt Gabriel Borikrelations between Washington and Santiago de Chile have not been “solid,” and accused the outgoing president of “lying” over his criticism of Trump.
In turn, a few hours before the referendum in Ecuador, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marco Rubio He did not hesitate to express his support for Noboa, praising his fight against “narcoterrorism” and ensuring the support of the White House. Rubio visited the country in early September, strengthening Washington-Quito cooperation, while also becoming a controversial businessman Erik Prince he collects 30 thousand dollars a day for his consultations with public security agencies. “This is an unnecessary waste of public resources,” the former Ecuadorian general warned Luis Altamirano. But the peak of US expansionism occurred a week ago with the visit Kristi NoemSecretary of Homeland Security, who carries out a horseback inspection at the old military bases of Manta and Salinas. “From here Ecuador will end drug trafficking,” Noem said, days before the referendum.
hand brake. Therefore, the capture of Santiago and Quito was postponed and the United States was forced to reduce its objectives, focusing as much as possible on Kast’s victory in Chile, with the aim of forming an ideologically similar government. Of course, voters want better security, but they worry about selling out their respective states. Their distrust is partly due to what is happening in the Caribbean, offshore Venezuelawith surgery Southern Spear ready to start complete with an offer of exile to Nicolas Maduro and intervention hypothesis. “The more you force your hand, the more they wake up anti-American sentiment in the region. And public opinion is choosing to move away from certain dynamics, which are endangering the continent,” a source told The Guardian fattoquotidiano.it. Another impacting factor is China’s impact on both countries: Ecuador owes Beijing nearly 5 billion dollars, which Quito pays in the form of crude oil. Xi Jinping it is also Chile’s first trading partner, with bilateral trade recently exceeding 50 billion dollars, mainly in raw materials such as copper And lithium. In fact, regardless of the results of the vote in Chile, complete alignment with Washington remains an illusion.
Open question. However, security and migration issues remain open in both countries. In Ecuador murder rate has increased from 25.6 to 43.7 per 100 thousand population in the last two years, i kidnapping they increased by 60% in the same period. Elements that strengthen the perception of “internal war“, pushing the Noboa government into “exacerbated presidentialism”, he said Hernán Salgado’s messageformer judge of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. Even in Chile the murder rate has increased by 5% in the last two years and the focus of the debate is still on migration, as the migrant population has reached 8.8% of the population, thus strengthening the proposal “mass expulsionlaunched by Kast.
