Is the federal government in danger of ending early? According to a representative survey conducted by the Insa Institute for the “Bild” newspaper, the majority of the public does not believe that the coalition between the Unity Party and the SPD will last until the end of the legislative period in 2029. When asked whether the federal government will remain in office until then, 54 percent answered no. 29 percent expect this to continue, 17 percent did not provide any information.
According to the information, Union voters in particular (56 percent) assume that the alliance will remain in place until 2029. However, among other groups of voters – including those from the former traffic light party SPD and the Green Party – assessments of premature failure dominate. The score ranges from 43 percent among SPD supporters to 78 percent among AfD voters.
The published survey was conducted at a time of significant tension within the coalition. The backdrop is an ongoing row within the European Union over plans for a pension package and weak government poll figures.
In a general debate in the Bundestag on Wednesday, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) called for rapid progress in social reforms and a “new generational consensus” on pension policy. SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch is also confident: With a positive spirit, “we can really achieve great things in this grand coalition and put this pension system on a solid footing for the future.”
For this survey, about 1,000 eligible voters were interviewed from November 21 to 24 – a number that is methodologically considered the lower limit of representation.
