The director of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), Joan Rodríguez Teruel (Barcelona, 51 years old) received this newspaper this Tuesday, in the midst of a controversy over the estimate of seats in the Parliament of the barometer published last Monday. Preceded by days of hoaxes about its content, the survey shows the advance of the far right. Junts for Catalunya loses between 15 and 16 deputies, who end up on the bench of a disparate Aliança Catalana (AC); The two teams share third position.
Prestigious political scientist and researcher, Rodríguez Teruel defended the professionalism of the CEO’s employees in the face of attacks from Junts who sees a black hand against them. He asks not to question the institutions in the face of a CA that feeds on anti-politics and which sees it close to facing its contradictions.
Ask. The presentation of the barometer began by disproving the hoaxes. Symptomatic of the times?
Answer. Polls, like the rest of the spheres of political life, experience deformations and the creation of legends that seek to provoke states of opinion.
Q. What makes you think that Vox or Aliança won’t follow the path of rise and fall of Ciudadanos or Podemos?
R. Vox is already starting to establish itself as a new player in the political scene and Aliança has learned to focus on the message. Podemos and Ciudadanos then did not give importance to the organization and the far right is betting on an organizational base that supports the arrival of these new voters.
Q. The July Barometer indicates that 20% of Catalans could vote for far-right forces. Will that ceiling break?
R. It is unfounded to anticipate the ability of these parties to bring about a revolution in the system. To break this ceiling it would be necessary for them to have government experience and for a delegitimization of the current forces in power to take place. This perception of discredit does not exist in Catalonia.
Q. Will the traditional parties be able to stop it?
R. I don’t find the idea that the rise of the far right is the product of globalization’s losers satisfying. I think it has more to do with the way the representative bond between parties and citizens has been broken. Traditional parties can win if they demonstrate that they are capable of renewing themselves to best meet the expectations of their electorate, if they convey a coherent vision of the future and if they generate well-being that incentivizes their traditional voters to continue to support them.
Q. Aliança, according to the barometer, shows support beyond the independence movement. How can you explain it?
R. At the moment, Aliança focuses on rejecting immigration and socialist governments, attracting a broader electorate than the independence movement. But at some point this heterogeneity will become unsustainable. When you have to talk about public policies, the limits of your speech will be shown.
Q. Could PSC also be affected by the success of Sílvia Orriols’ team?
R. Polls show that they are antagonistic parties. But socialist leaders must evaluate the effects that the destabilization of a systemic party like Junts could have on them.
Q. Regardless of the latest barometer, Junts always complains about the deviation of his results. What’s happening?
R. It is not true that the CEO systematically damages the space represented by Junts. Without going any further, in the 2012 elections CiU received very positive esteem, which was later discredited. Many times polls are misinterpreted because they are seen as correct predictions when in reality they are critical to understanding fundamental changes. You need to read the studies as a whole, not just the places.
Q. Junts talks about an operation against him…
R. I fear that some mainstream parties will try to shrug off the problems they have through a poll, discrediting the entire institution. This affects them, because fueling conspiratorial thinking only helps those who benefit from such attitudes. The technical debate is much more interesting.
Q. Would it not have been appropriate to explain his method, as his predecessor, Jordi Muñoz, did when he took office?
R. The CEO’s plan is designed to guarantee transparency from the first moment. Another thing is the decision to make or not to make estimates that have been made over 20 years of history. Muñoz introduced a certain sophistication with his method, which is more rigid, connects to current postulates and is more easily explainable. It is legitimate and I never wanted to contrast this with mine, which as always falls within the barometers.
Q. Muñoz has been criticized for his wide range of posts. Isn’t it ironic that this reflects the uncertainty inherent in polling?
R. The chances of making mistakes are as high as those of my predecessor, but at least this forces me to explain decisions more to focus on those smaller bands.
Q. Wouldn’t a sample design designed by constituencies avoid controversy?
R. I defend the commitment to clusters that are more representative of the municipalities and the population, against the idea of creating provincial quotas, overrepresenting small constituencies. It would certainly be necessary to increase the basis of the number of surveys collected to be able to better see the changes occurring in Lleida and Girona, but it is a technical decision of the CEO.
Q. What do you say to those who attribute partiality to you for having been a member of the PSC executive?
R. The interrogation is legal. It further increases my self-demand in the performance and professionalism of the position I hold.
