As a good lover heavy metal and big-engine motorcycles in her youth, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took aim at a major rival in her first diplomatic brawl: China. The ultra-conservative politician, nationalist by nature and defender of a Japan with a greater military structure, celebrates one month in office this Friday while relations with Beijing continue in free fall. Many analysts risked a clash between neighbors. Few believed it would happen so quickly.
The dispute arose from some statements by Takaichi on Taiwan which inflamed the relationship. On November 7, when he had been prime minister for less than three weeks, he assured in a parliamentary response that any attempt by China to block or seize Taiwan could represent “an existential threat” to his country, which would justify the deployment of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
His comments were a slap in the face to China, which has since unleashed its diplomatic fury, outlined economic retaliation and threatened to go further: “If Japan refuses to back down (…) China will have no choice but to take severe and forceful measures,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.
Takaichi, for now, has only explained that his words were “hypothetical”, and assured that his government’s position has not changed, that his comment is nothing new. He didn’t go back. Few expect it to.
“Our position on Taiwan remains the same. In this sense, there is no need to change the prime minister’s statement,” Kitamura Toshihiro, director general of Press and Public Diplomacy at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a telephone interview with EL PAÍS on Thursday. “Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are important not only for Japan’s security, but also for the stability of the international community as a whole,” he defends.
Jeffrey J. Hall, a professor at Kanda University of International Studies in Chiba, Japan, believes Takaichi has taken a new path. Until now, when talking about Taiwan, prime ministers “have used vague and ambiguous language that suggested Japan might have a role in a conflict,” he says. “but they did not specifically say that Japan could defend Taiwan.”
THE iron lady of Japan, the first woman to lead the Executive, put an end to this “strategic ambiguity”. And this infuriated Beijing, even though most security experts already assumed that if the United States was involved in a conflict over Taiwan, Japan would be involved: American troops would have to use Japanese bases.
The Prime Minister’s statements arise from a question from an opposition MP. The question is pertinent because of the restrictions imposed on the Japanese military, a reflection of the pacifist Constitution born from the ashes of the Second World War: its armed forces are prohibited from intervening in international conflicts unless it is a “survival crisis situation” for Japan. Taiwan, the prime minister said, is one of these cases.
The answer bears Takaichi’s seal: no surprise for those who were already aware of the uncompromising history with which he rose through the ranks. Analyst Hall believes that his intervention was a move that did not have the advice of “bureaucrats” or experts from the ministries. It is perceived in the language used. He mentioned, for example, “battleships,” even though these ships no longer exist in the Chinese or Japanese navies. “It seems like he wanted to use his own words,” he adds. “He may not have been informed of the importance of specifically mentioning the Taiwan crisis as a situation that threatens Japan’s survival.”
He also thinks it unlikely he will retire. His statements must be read internally at a time when the identity-based nationalist movement is growing in Japan, as in much of the world. “His conservative supporters would be very disappointed,” he explains. “They want him to be firm with China.” Takaichi is, in a certain sense, the answer of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) in power to stop the bleeding of votes towards the far-right populist parties, with Trumpist airs, which have put the government in check.
The politician is known for his rigid vision towards the Asian giant. And for his intention to strengthen the Japanese defense with the help of Washington. In his first week in command, he promised to accelerate military spending to reach 2% of GDP next year and not in 2027. He is inclined to reduce constitutional limitations on troops. He spoke clearly about how China and its companies pose a threat to Japan and suggested that Chinese residents should be banned from buying property due to the risk of it being used for espionage.
The struggle is fueled by historical doubts and unhealed wounds from the past. In China, the outrages of Japanese imperialism are still very much present. In September, Beijing marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II – which it calls Japan’s surrender in the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) – with a giant military parade and an intense campaign on the “correct view of history”.
In his first month in office, Takaichi pushed forward an intense international agenda. The first week received US President Donald Trump in Japan: they announced a “new golden era” in relations. Three days later, in South Korea, he met China’s Xi Jinping. He asked him to “learn from history” and reminded him of the agreements signed on Taiwan: “They must be strictly observed and respected.” Just a day later, Takaichi met with Taiwanese leaders: it was the beginning of the storm.
For China, Taiwan represents the red line of its foreign policy. It considers the self-ruled island an inalienable part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force for its reunification, despite Taipei enjoying US military support. At the same time, Taiwan is just over 100 kilometers from Japanese territory and lies on vital sea routes to Japan.
From day one, Beijing has criticized Takaichi for “severely damaging bilateral relations and challenging the post-war international order”; He summoned the Japanese ambassador to Beijing for consultations, carried out military maneuvers with firearms in the Yellow Sea, carried out coast guard patrols near some disputed islands administered by Tokyo; has alerted its citizens to the risks of traveling to Japan, curbing tourism from China, and announced its intention to once again suspend imports of Japanese fish products, a ban already in force in retaliation for the discharge of water from the Fukushima plant into the sea.
The brawl is accompanied by heated nationalist rhetoric on Chinese social networks and official media. Faced with the risk of the verbal dispute spilling over into the real world, the Japanese embassy in Beijing has issued a “safety” notice to its citizens residing in China. The message that the Chinese consul in Osaka published (and then deleted) on
“A very inappropriate statement from a senior diplomat in Japan,” responds Kitamura of the Japanese Foreign Ministry. The Chinese consul was called for consultations. Meanwhile, the Japanese government tries to conciliate, without recanting, but by multiplying its calm language. On Tuesday he sent a senior official to Beijing to look for a way out. The meeting did not bear any fruit. And there is no roadmap to mitigate anger either. “To be honest, no decisions have been made about the next steps,” Kitamura explains. “But we remain open to maintaining a responsible dialogue between the two countries.” He says Tokyo would like to continue building a “constructive and stable” relationship.
