The jihadist threat extends to Mali and puts pressure on the ruling junta

After expanding its influence in the southern and western regions of Mali, JNIM (Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims) is now blocking fuel supplies to the capital and several large cities by attacking oil convoys. Enough to make things difficult for the ruling junta, while continuing operations to terrorize the population.

It’s a recurring image this November, along the main road connecting Mali’s capital, Bamako, with Senegal’s capital, Dakar, or Ivory Coast’s Abidjan. Tanker trucks caught fire, or were abandoned along the road, after experiencing armed attacks. Illustration of the new strategy developed by JNIM, the most influential and widespread jihadist movement in the country.

Arabic acronym for Support Group for Islam and MuslimsJNIM is an emanation of several smaller groups that have been operating in the Sahel for several years, and in particular its Al-Qaeda branch. in the Islamic Maghreb. Consisting of around 6,000 fighters, the group usually operates in desert areas in the north of the country, but it continues to expand its influence to penetrate deep into rural areas in the west and south of the country.

The current expansion makes it possible to develop new strategies, with road blockades in the capital, strangling the country’s economy. For several weeks, oil convoys have been attacked on the main roads linking Bamako to Dakar in the west, and Abidjan in the south. A targeted attack that neither the Malian army nor the Russian mercenaries of the Afrika Corps (which replaced Wagner’s group) could prevent, even though Senegal and the Ivory Coast were the main sources of supplies for the landlocked country.

This ambush on a tanker truck delivering fuel provided more images of burned or abandoned vehicles along the road. But most importantly, the blockade caused huge shortages. As a result, lines at gas stations are getting longer, activity in the capital and other big cities is slowing sharply, and the economic paralysis is putting pressure on the ruling junta.

JNIM’s territorial expansion and multiplication of armed operations does not mean that the jihadist movement has the capacity to seize power, or seize the capital. JNIM undoubtedly does not have the personnel to control a country twice the size of France, or even to control Bamako, a city of more than three million where the bulk of Mali’s army power is concentrated.

However, this system was sufficient to be applied to certain areas, and enforced behavior adapted to their strict Islamic vision. And spreading terror through kidnapping or murder, as happened to Mariam Cissé which occurred on Friday 7 November in the city of Tonka, Timbuktu region. Suspected of providing information to the army, this young woman who became famous through her videos shared on TikTok was shot in public. An episode that aroused strong emotions in the country, but helped spread fear among the people.

For French intelligence, JNIM’s goal, through these various strategies, was to try to overthrow the junta, and gain new power, with which to negotiate the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in certain regions. Threats that impact other countries in the region, such as Niger or Burkina Faso, with a real risk of a domino effect.