On Sunday we vote for the presidential election in Republika Srpska, one of the two main entities that make up Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is mainly inhabited by Bosnian Serbs. These are early elections called to replace former president Milorad Dodik, a nationalist and pro-Russian leader who has repeatedly threatened the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Last August he was removed from office due to a conviction that also prevented him from running again. However, he remained a very well-known and influential politician in Republika Srpska, and therefore the election was considered a kind of referendum on his leadership. There is no voting: whoever gets the most votes is directly elected.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a very complicated government system, which serves to ensure balance between the main national groups: Bosniaks (to generalize a bit, Bosnian Muslims), Serbs and Croats, who fought each other in a very cruel war in the 1990s. Among other things, it is divided into several administrative regions with great autonomy, and Republika Srpska is one of them. In Italian it is also called the Serbian Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Srpska is an adjective noun consisting of a root word doctorwhich means “Serbian”.
There are six candidates in the election, but the ones who really stand a chance of winning are two: Siniša Karan, of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), Dodik’s close collaborator and current minister of higher education, and Branko Blanuša, of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), supported by many opposition parties. After being found guilty, Dodik said he wanted to boycott the vote, but then changed his mind and today supports Karan.
In recent weeks, Karan has made a lot of use of his closeness to Dodik to gather support: his election campaign slogan was “For Karan – Srpska will win, for Dodik”, and Dodik himself took part in the election campaign and also attended several events. On November 8, Karan wrote in X: «It’s time to affirm the mandate that the people gave to President Milorad Dodik three years ago. The next election will not be ordinary, it is a vote where we must protect and affirm the will of the people.”
Karan is a professor of constitutional law and was Minister of the Interior in the SNSD government, which led Republika Srpska since 2006. Like Dodik, he argued that Republika Srpska should gain greater autonomy from the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and threatened its separation: it was for this reason that Karan, Dodik and their other allies were long subject to US sanctions, which were recently removed.
Dodik was convicted of refusing to respect the authority and decisions of the UN High Representative, the international official who oversaw the peace agreement that ended the 1990s ethnic conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He continued to support the separatist movement even after he was sentenced, and in recent months his government has begun the process of approving a new Constitution of Republika Srpska: among other things, the new text will give the region its own army and a separate judiciary.
Siniša Karan’s election advertisement which begins with a long speech by Milorad Dodik
Branko Blanuša, Karan’s main opponent, teaches at the Electrical Engineering faculty of the University of Banja Luka (capital of Republika Srpska). He organized his election campaign in opposition to Dodik: he presented the former president’s beliefs as a possible bellwether for politics in the region and portrayed the election as a way for voters to make “Srpska proud again”.
He also promised a series of anti-corruption reforms, citing dissatisfaction among parts of the public with Dodik’s government, which has frequently been embroiled in major corruption scandals. However, it is unclear whether he will be able to gain enough votes to win, given that support for the Independent Social Democratic Alliance (and also for Karan) is very strong.
– Read also: Not all Bosnian Serbs support Milorad Dodik
