No UN climate conference has ended on time since 2003, and this will also happen in Belem in 2025. There are debates about money – and about the question of how and when the world will abandon fossil energy.
The success of the Climate Change Summit hangs in the balance. Although the Brazilian presidency announced loudly that the conference would end on time, participants in Belém were also working overtime. And like many climate conferences before it, this one is again about money and the question of whether and how the global community will commit to moving away from fossil fuels.
Although the host himself, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, suggested a roadmap for this, this was not mentioned in Brazil’s draft presidential text. An alliance of about 80 countries wants just that: a binding ban on the use of coal, oil and gas. The alliance includes countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia – as well as most EU countries.
Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider stressed: “For this reason, we as the European Union have decided together to make it clear that we need more climate protection measures and clear regulations to move away from fossil fuels.”
“We all know the blockers”
But oil-producing countries want to prevent this and stick to their business model as long as possible. According to experts, the fossil fuel industry generates profits of three billion dollars per day.
“We all know the blockers,” said the head of the department responsible in France, Monique Barbut. These are oil-producing countries such as Russia, India and Saudi Arabia – plus many developing countries. “And there are countries that initially sided with us, but gradually said to themselves: If there is adaptation funding, then we can live without emissions reduction texts,” the French minister said.
His nerves were on edge. EU countries accuse oil-producing countries of insulting countries in the southern region. A discussion group convened by the presidency in which the ministers involved should have been more closely aborted without success.
“Raising climate protection standards”
The European Union is putting pressure on the summit leadership to come up with a new compromise offer. And he threatened to stop negotiations. “This is serious,” said the European delegation. And EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stressed: Better no results than no roadmap to phase out coal, oil and gas.
“We continue to talk with friends and allies around the world to raise the bar on climate action,” Hoekstra said. “But we also have to consider the possibility of not getting the title.” Reducing greenhouse gases is a “key element” to be achieved at the climate conference.
Countries in the southern region want financial commitments
On the other hand, countries in the southern region do not have clear financial commitments. Countries such as Chad, Myanmar and Honduras especially need support to be able to adapt to the impacts of climate change: building dams, fortifying coasts or securing water sources.
Industrialized countries will have to devote three times as many resources to this by 2030 as they do today. The problem: There is absolutely no certainty whether the required $40 billion will be raised this year, which would then have to be tripled.
This is an outrage, said Sabine Minninger of the development organization Bread for the World. The poorest countries need security planning. “Developing countries wanted to provide $120 billion to arm themselves for the climate crisis. But now they have taken that $40 billion as a baseline and are only talking about tripling the amount that might be available one day,” Minninger said.
The EU has indicated flexibility in adaptation funding, as long as the overall package is appropriate. But those involved are far from that. Ultimately, the summit can only achieve results if there are no objections from nearly 200 countries. Brazil’s presidency is running out of time.
