Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach a new record by 2025, according to a scientific study that confirmed on Thursday that it is almost “impossible” to limit global warming to less than 1.5°C.
According to the Global Carbon Project, led by 130 international scientists and published annually when countries gather for the UN climate conference (COP30), CO2 emissions from coal, oil and fossil gas will increase 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching 38.1 billion tonnes (GtCO2).
“This increase is higher than the average annual increase over the last ten years, which was 0.8%,” notes the study, which shows that emissions are now 10% higher than in 2015, the year the Paris agreement was signed, aiming to limit warming to 2°C or even 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.
Even though emissions in some countries have fallen, mainly as a result of the development of renewable energy, electrification of vehicles or reduced deforestation, “collectively, the world is not up to the task”, underlines Glen Peters of the International Climate Research Centre. “Everyone must do their part, and everyone must do more.”
The study, which is expected to be the same as previous COPs for the first estimates of global climate change this year, estimates the amount of CO2 remaining to meet the 1.5°C limit at 170 billion tonnes (GtCO2).
“This is equivalent to four years of emissions at current levels before the budget allocated to limit warming to 1.5°C is exhausted. Therefore, in practice, this is not possible,” concluded Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter, who led the research.
Warming of 2.5°C by the end of the century
This failure observation is in place throughout 2025, which is now acknowledged by the UN, climate experts, the IPCC president and the participants of this COP. The goal now is to ensure that the excess is temporary, but measurable over decades.
Currently, world temperatures will rise by 2.3 to 2.5°C by the end of the century if countries keep their commitments, the UN forecast just before the Belem meeting. It was a similar order of magnitude (2.6°C by 2100) in calculations also published on Thursday by Climate Action Tracker. Recent announcements from various countries “change nothing,” the group concluded.
By 2025, emissions associated with burning coal will reach a new record, increasing by 0.8% globally, driven primarily by increases recorded in the United States and India. Oil and gas releases also increased, by 1 and 1.3%, respectively. Regarding gas, emissions “appear to be returning to the persistent growth trend that existed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the study reported.
By region, the United States and the European Union reversed the downward trend of recent years, recording emissions increases of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, due in part to milder winters boosting heating demand.
Emissions from China, the most polluting country, appear to be stabilizing (+0.4%), but according to Peters, uncertainty about the policies the country is taking makes claims that peak emissions have been reached prematurely.
