Authoritarian nostalgia has gained ground in Chile. In the first presidential round, far-right candidates, Republican José Antonio Kast and libertarian Johannes Kaiser, won 37.8% of the vote, supported by voters who esteem Augusto Pinochet as one of the best political leaders in the history of the South American country and who believe that if politicians followed the dictator’s ideals, Chile would regain its place in the world, according to a poll conducted by Ipsos and the Institute of Political Sciences of the Catholic University of Chile, presented exclusively to El PAÍS. The two ultra groups presented themselves in the same pact for the parliamentary elections – different from that of the traditional right – and on the same night in which Kast went to the ballot to face the candidate of the left, Jeannette Jara, the libertarian gave her her support.
The investigation, conducted by academic Cristóbal Rovira, a specialist in the far-right phenomenon, was conducted 1,500 days before the first presidential round. When asked whether Kast and Jara would go to a runoff, as they did, 47 percent said they would vote for the Republican and 32 percent for the militant Communist. Among Kaiser supporters, 84% will support the Republican. Rovira underlines that, although Kast and Kaiser “maintain a different style – the first more sober and close to Le Pen’s model in France; the second more strident and close to that of Trump in the United States – they both belong to the same political family”.
To better understand the Chilean reality, the survey asked the same questions based on voting intentions to the five most supported candidates in the elections (Jara, Kast, Kaiser, Evelyn Matthei, from the traditional right, and the populist Franco Parisi). The results show that those who support the far right show levels of authoritarian nostalgia close to 50% among Republicans and 65-69% among libertarians. When asked how much they agree that democracy is preferable to any other form of government, the average of respondents is 68%, but among Kast voters the figure drops to 54% and among Kaiser voters it drops to 50%. Among those from Jara, however, the figure reaches 91%. Now, when asked whether in some circumstances an authoritarian government might be preferable to a democratic one, the average is 24%, while among supporters of Kast and Kaiser the figure is 43%. Those from Jara, 6%.
Respondents were also presented with a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means “strongly disagree” and 5 is “strongly agree,” on how much they agree or disagree that Pinochet was one of the best political leaders in Chilean history. The average is 30% between strongly agree and agree. Kast voters are 22 points higher (52%) and Kaiser voters are 39 points higher (69%). Among Jara voters, support is just 4%. On the same rating scale, when asked how much they agree or disagree that if Chilean politicians followed Pinochet’s ideals, Chile would regain its place in the world, 32% responded that they strongly agreed or agreed. Among Kast members, however, the percentage reaches 52% and among Kaiser members 65%. Those of the left-wing candidate, 7%.
“Sometimes people think that some candidates are challenging democratic practices, while others think that those candidates actually support them,” was the premise of one of the questions. Also on a scale of 1 to 5, respondents answered whether the candidates contest or support democratic practices. 38% put Kaiser first on the scale, the most extreme option that challenges democratic practices, 33% Kast and 26% Jara. Among those who opted for 5 – the highest alternative to indicate that the candidate supports these practices – 30% answered Jara, 24% Kast and 19% Kaiser.
In the chapter of the survey on political positions and values - the latter omitted in the Republican campaign – 69% of Jara voters responded that they strongly agreed or agreed with the fact that the right to protest must be protected even when it causes inconvenience for people. In the case of Republicans, 36%, and in the case of Libertarians, 25%. As for whether women use feminism to unfairly gain an advantage over men, 75% of voters say they strongly agree or agree, 65% of Kast voters, and 22% of Jara voters. Regarding support for abortion in all circumstances as a woman’s right to decide, 78% of the left-wing candidate’s supporters strongly agree or agree, 34% for Kast and 20% for Kaiser. As for gay marriage, it is supported by 75% of Jara voters, 38% of Republican voters, and 25% of Libertarian voters.
One of the campaign’s themes was immigration control and what to do with the 330,000 undocumented foreigners residing in Chile. When asked if immigration weakens the country’s culture, 79% of Kaiser voters support it, 76% of Kast voters and 39% of Jara voters support it. Another issue that has dominated the political debate is how to address the security crisis that the country is experiencing, where the harsh speeches of the far right are the ones that have had the most resonance among citizens with historic levels of fear. When asked whether they believed crime would be solved with more order and a strong hand, 78% of Libertarian voters said they strongly agreed or agreed, 71% of Republican voters and 23% of left-wing candidates said they strongly agreed. For their part, if education and work are needed to address the problem, 37% of the inhabitants of Jara support the idea, 8% of Kast and 7% of Kaiser.
