THAT’Ukraine declared three days of national mourning over another massacre carried out by Russia. At the same time, a senior White House official told Politico: “President Trump’s peace plan will be presented this weekend.” It will consist of 28 points. Negotiations have been ongoing between Moscow and Washington for some time. Therefore, without Kiev, London and Brussels. There are already some known elements: The US asked Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass and some types of weapons such as long-range missiles. The plan envisaged a major reduction in numbers, up to a halving of Kiev’s army. For the Financial Times there was also talk of “recognition of Russian as the official state language of Ukraine and granting official status to the Russian Orthodox Church”. Objectively a Putinafter nearly four years of war and massacre, everything he asked for was granted. Moreover, according to Axios, Washington will recognize Donbass and Crimea as Russian territory. Ukrainian media spoke of “Kiev’s dissatisfaction”, while Zelensky tactfully stated: “Only Trump and the US have the power to stop the war”.
Ukrainian war, scenario
Various media such as Politico, Axios and the Wall Street Journal spoke about the twenty-eight point plan yesterday. What do we know so far? Security guarantees for Ukraine offered by the US in the event of a new attack from Russia were introduced. There is protection for Europe. And relations between Washington and Moscow are reestablished. Reuters and Axios confirmed that there are open talks regarding the complete handover of Donbass to Russia, as well as parts that cannot be occupied by Moscow’s army. What a senior White House official told Politico was unconvincing: the plan would be presented to Zelensky as “a fait accompli” and he would have to accept it given the pressure Ukraine is under on the battlefield and the corruption scandals weakening Kiev. “But what we are going to tell Zelensky is common sense,” the official assured. And Europe? “We are not interested in European countries – this Washington source said again – What is important is that Ukraine accepts”. In the White House they added: of course, under the plan, Kiev would have to cede territory that Russia did not conquer on the battlefield, but “Ukraine will still lose territory if the war continues and it is therefore in Ukraine’s interest to reach an agreement now.”
The scheme
In short, according to a scheme summarized by Axios: «Trump’s plan provides for Russia to gain de facto full control over Luhansk and Donetsk (together making up the Donbass), even though Ukraine still controls about 12 percent of the territory. Despite being under Russian control, the Donbass region from which Ukraine will withdraw will be considered a demilitarized zone, and Russia cannot station troops there. In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control will remain largely frozen, and Russia will return some of its territory, subject to negotiations.” Again: «A Ukrainian official said the plan also includes limiting the size of Kiev’s army and its long-range weapons, in exchange for security guarantees from the United States. The Ukrainian official also confirmed that the US plan includes Ukrainian territorial concessions in the Donbass. It is unclear what the US security guarantees include, other than a promise to defend against further Russian aggression.” From Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured: “Russia is ready to negotiate.” A major role in these negotiations was played by Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy. Witkoff himself discussed the plan with Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Sovereign Fund, in a late October meeting in the US. As happened in Gaza, Qatar and Turkey also act as mediators. Also in the US, Witkoff discussed the plan with the national security advisor and former Ukrainian Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov and on that occasion a mediator from Doha was also present. Witkoff was then supposed to go to Ankara for a trilateral meeting with Zelensky and Erdogan. However, Trump’s envoy’s trip was canceled because Zelensky did not accept all points of the plan and most importantly asked that European partners also be involved in the negotiations. The Ukrainian President has prepared his own draft plan and yesterday, he went to Türkiye where he spoke at length with President Erdogan. The latter explained: “We are always ready to discuss proposals with Russia to activate a ceasefire and pave the way for lasting peace. We appreciate the involvement of the United States.” Zelensky called the summit with Erdogan “productive.” He added: “We discussed further defense cooperation: joint production projects and coordination. We believe in Türkiye’s role.” The next few days will be decisive. And here the conclusion of a White House official quoted by Axios is useful: «The ball is now in Zelensky’s court. You can come to Washington to discuss a new plan if you want.”
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