“The proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of key defensive positions and capabilities needed to defend itself against future Russian aggression, which is unlikely to achieve anything. We continue to assess that handing over the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia and freezing the front lines in southern Ukraine would greatly benefit Moscow. Donetsk Oblast includes important areas for Ukraine, including the Fortress Belt – Ukraine’s main defense line in the oblast since 2014 – and includes cities that are important defense, industrial and logistics centers for Ukrainian forces.” This assessment comes not from Kiev, but from independent think tanks like the American Isw, the Institute for the Study of War, which nicely summarizes the general astonishment, at least in the Western world, when faced with the details of the 28-point peace plan drawn up by Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy, and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s powerful sovereign fund and a confidant of Vladimir Putin. A European diplomat made an effective joke in a conversation with CNN: «It looks like Groundhog Day – a quote from the film in Italy called “Groundhog Day” in which events are repeated endlessly – Many of Moscow’s maximalist demands for 2022 are revived». The Telegraph, a British media outlet, cited one further detail from what had been discussed the day before: Russia would pay rent to control the entire Donbass (Putin’s army has not yet succeeded in occupying it all on the battlefield). In return for the valuable minerals and resources that exist in Ukraine’s western regions, the Kremlin will pay – if the peace plan is approved – huge economic sums. A scenario that seems implausible to many, even from the Kremlin’s point of view, because it would mean recognizing that these territories belong to Ukraine, even if Putin has included in the Constitution that Donbass is part of the Federation. For some observers, this point is also aimed at disrupting Ukraine’s stability.
PRESSURE
The NBC network confirmed that the 28-point text had been approved by Trump and there was also support from JD Vance and Marco Rubio. Witkoff explained the plan verbally to Zelensky’s envoy, Umerov, but the Ukrainians detained him. Yesterday a US delegation consisting of the Secretary of the US Army, Daniel Driscoll, and two other generals left for Kiev. American pressure on Zelensky is very strong. President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to discuss a peace plan with President Trump in the next few days, which in fact only pleases Russia but not Ukraine or the EU. The US-Russian proposal was “absurd” and unacceptable, as senior Kiev officials commented, a “provocation” to “confuse” allies. European partners have distanced themselves and expressed deep disappointment at the seemingly unbalanced agreement scheme on Putin’s part. Let’s recall some of the details: the recognition of Russian as the official language of Ukraine, the recognition of the Russian Orthodox Church (effectively an operational arm of the Kremlin), the halving of Kiev’s army, and the rejection of long-range missiles. Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO has been postponed. Of course, the Donbass will officially be a buffer zone, but can Kiev really trust Moscow’s promises after the capture of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion starting in 2022, given that Kiev also had to abandon the deployment of peacekeepers from the Coalition of the Will (basically Western countries) as it was not included in the plan? One of the points states that the United States will be the one to guarantee Ukraine’s security in the event of Moscow’s new expansionist goals, but there are also doubts about this because there are people who remember the Budapest memorandum of 1994. In the agreement, Kiev, in the post-Soviet Union era, abandoned its nuclear arsenal, but the other signatory countries, among others, promised to respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and borders. Russia, the US and the UK signed it and we have seen what happens with those commitments. Although Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine who is considered close to Kiev, will step down from his post, speaking was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the members of the Trump administration considered to be more distant from Putin. Sibillino: «Ending a complex and deadly war like the one in Ukraine requires a serious and realistic exchange of ideas. And achieving lasting peace will require both sides to accept difficult but necessary concessions.” While White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt commented: Trump’s plan for peace in Ukraine is “good” for both sides.
Bad mood
A plan that on the one hand seems to call for Kiev to be prepared to bow its head, on the other hand may be a way of saying that they should also include a step back from Putin who, at the moment, cannot be identified. Discontent is growing in Europe. Estonia’s Kaja Kallas stressed: “For the peace plan to succeed, it must be supported by Ukraine and Europe. If Russia really wants peace, it will accept the offer of an unconditional ceasefire in early March. Pressure must be put on the attacker, not on the attacker. The EU has a very clear two-point plan. First, weaken Russia. Second, support Ukraine.” Russia is “deceiving itself” if it thinks it is “weakening the resolve of the UK and other Western countries to guarantee support for Ukraine: support that remains unwavering” said the deputy foreign minister of Keir Starmer’s British government, Hamish Falconer.
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