Climate change COP30, which was officially scheduled to end on Friday 21 November in Belèm, Brazil, but was extended this Saturday, will not be the COP that marks the beginning of the end of the global hegemony of fossil fuels responsible for climate upheaval. Because the challenges facing developing and oil-rich countries have proven insurmountable: European countries have finally resigned themselves to a global agreement that meets little of their demands to move away from fossil fuels, preferring this compromise to the failure of multilateralism.
After two weeks of negotiations between nearly 200 countries and a final night of negotiations in Belem, the countries this Saturday agreed by consensus on a simple text prepared by the president of the Brazilian summit, to celebrate the Paris agreement and climate cooperation. None of the nearly 200 member states of the Paris agreement expressed objection before the conference’s president, André Correa do Lago of Brazil, expressed his objection.
This text simply calls for accelerated action “voluntary”and only made indirect references to the exit from fossil fuels, in light of the COP28 consensus in Dubai, and without writing out the words explicitly. This is a far cry from plans previously requested by more than 80 European, Latin American and island countries.
“We have to support him because at least he is taking us in the right directionsaid Wopke Hoesktra, Europe’s climate commissioner, after a night of negotiations and coordination meetings with the Twenty-Seven. We will not hide that we want more, and more ambition in everything.
French Minister Monique Barbut added that Europe would prefer to accept this text as it is “attacks launched against European countries, saying that one of the reasons why we oppose this text is because we don’t want to give money to the poorest countries.”
By 2023, countries are committed to “making a just, orderly and equitable transition from the use of fossil fuels into the energy system”for the first time in the history of a UN climate conference, despite the fact that it aims to open the door to a better conference. Since then, countries that produce or depend on fossil fuels have rejected any attempts to repeat this signal in a multilateral framework.
Analyst Li Shuo of the Asia Society in Washington saw the results as new “an inflection point in global climate policy.” “As domestic climate ambitions slow, international negotiations are now hampered by declining political will. As the United States withdraws, other actors become cautious and hesitant.he said in Belem.
Burning oil, gas and coal is the main cause of global warming. Countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and India have been singled out by France as the countries that have refused the most, but they are not the only countries to refuse. Most developing countries did not make the fight against fossils a priority when it came to Brazil two weeks ago. For them, funding is more urgent, and COP30 gives them a small advantage.
The compromise text provides for a tripling of financial assistance for adaptation of developing countries by 2035, compared with the current target of 40 billion per year. These countries make it clear that many countries, whether poor or developing, do not have the means to switch to renewable energy in the future, or simply adapt their cities or farms to a disrupted climate. They demand additional financial commitments from the richest countries to help less rich countries.
Is this enough? “Not really. But negotiations between governments are progressing at the same low point. But our struggle continues.”a Bangladeshi negotiator told AFP. The agreement regulates the formation of a “dialog” on world trade, a first in climate negotiations. China, which is leading a growing country revolt against border carbon taxes, has made this a priority.
The Brazilian Presidency until the end refused to include in its text the creation of a “roadmap” to exit fossil fuels, although this was supported by Brazilian President Lula himself there. But as a consolation prize, on Saturday he announced his intention to launch another “road map” on the way out of fossils, as well as a second road map against deforestation, for volunteer countries. “We know some of you have bigger ambitions”acknowledged the president of the conference, André Correa do Lago.
“Science has won, multilateralism has won”Lula assured on Saturday in Johannesburg after the European Union paved the way for adopting the final COP30 agreement. “In the year when the earth for the first time – and perhaps permanently – surpassed the threshold of one and a half degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, the international community was faced with a choice: continue or give up. We chose the first option”he said at the G20 summit in South Africa.
The EU raised the possibility of leaving Belem on Friday “without consent”. This would be a major failure for the host nation, Brazil, and for the conference being held in one of the regions that epitomizes the environmental problems posed to the planet, namely the Amazon.
But the Europeans will find themselves “remote”according to a member of the delegation from one of the 27 countries. The delegation did not want to be seen as responsible for a diplomatic disaster at a time when they were trying to keep the global climate regime alive. “Those who doubt whether cooperation is the best thing to do for the climate will be pleased to see that we can’t agree”has warned André Correa do Lago.
