Until now, there was no doubt whether Ukraine would acquire the Rafale. Mirage, yes, but not the mainstay of French fighter aviation. However, Volodymyr Zelensky signed with Emmanuel Macron, this Monday in Paris, a “historic statement of intent” with the intention of purchasing 100 Rafales, “with associated armament”, underlined the Élysée. Last month, Ukraine’s president had signed a similar document to acquire 100 to 150 Swedish Gripen fighters.
In Europe, the median line is moving to adapt to Vladimir Putin’s determination. There is an urgency, because on the front lines, the front lines are also moving… to Russia’s advantage. Ukraine will lose its main city of Pokrovsk. The city will definitely stand if the sky is crossed by the precious Rafale.
“Rafale threat will prohibit Russia from sending kite bombs”
For now, the Ukrainian army is fighting back with American F-16s and French Mirage 2000s. The aircraft lost to the Rafale and Gripen, which still managed to shoot down the Sukhoi Su-35. “Russia cannot achieve air dominance. The Rafale threat will prevent them from sending glider bombs, of which there will be hundreds on the front. Pokrovsk will not be destroyed,” assured Xavier Tytelman, a former military aviator.
With their ability to combine multiple missions in flight (air-ground strikes, intimidation, information gathering, etc.), fly at night in degraded conditions or even send missiles as far as 80 km, the Rafale will change the face of conflict. “We are doing too little, too late,” believes the specialist.
It is too late, because they will not be used in this war: if this statement of intent turns into a contract (estimated to be worth around 15 billion euros), Ukraine will have to wait “about ten years”. Dassault Aviation’s order book is full through 2032.
Steel Hedgehog
Of course, the potential Rafale order does not address Ukraine’s short-term problems, namely the fight against Russian invasion and drones. But “we should not underestimate its symbolic significance,” stressed Ulrich Bounat, a geopolitical analyst. Within 5 to 10 years, Ukraine must become one of the countries with the strongest military power in Europe to avoid a recurrence of war. If they acquire 250 warplanes, France and Sweden, this may seem excessive for a country like Ukraine, because that country will have as many as France, but it makes sense when we are under threat from Russia. »
With this agreement, France is more anticipatory of the post-ceasefire: Ukraine will have to transform itself into a steel hedgehog to carry forward its neighbors’ desire to restart the conflict. Armored equipment for the Army is still necessary, because fighter aircraft, however numerous and efficient they may be, will not be enough to undermine Vladimir Putin’s ambitions. A future Rafale in Ukraine’s skies could even convince him to step on the accelerator now. Because the goal has not changed: to control Ukraine’s fate.
