The vote was promised to be closer than expected as part of a plan by left-wing groups to vote against the suspension, which they said was insufficient.
Will Elisabeth Borne’s pension reform be suspended by the National Assembly? The deputies must examine, Wednesday, November 12, article 45 bis of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS). This is one of the most political moments in this budget, as the suspension means no censorship by Lecornu’s Socialist Party government. However, some expect the vote to take place sooner than expected. A review of the positions of various parliamentary groups, some of which have not yet officially stated their intentions.
Groups that voted: PS, RN and Liot
Marine Le Pen’s group has always expressed its opposition to Borne’s reforms, even if that means voting to withdraw bills or censure motions proposed by the left-wing opposition. It is in this logic that the deputies of the National Rally had to agree to the suspension. Its representatives voted in this direction during debate in the Social Affairs Committee, where the suspension was approved by 22 votes to 12. “Anything we can do to help French people who work, suffer, have burdens and are struggling to reach retirement age is a good thing to do.”said Thomas Ménage, RN deputy for Loiret, during this debate.
A priori, socialist groups must also agree to this suspension. His deputies voted in favor of the text during his appearance at the Social Affairs Committee. And they abstained from voting on the revenue portion to continue debate on the expenditure portion of the PLFSS. The suspension of these reforms was a concession they obtained from the Prime Minister, in return for non-censorship. PS received another breakthrough from the government which will propose an amendment to extend the suspension of pension reform for long-term careers. But socialists vowed to remain vigilant during the debate, and hope to apply pressure until the end.
The Freedom, Independent, Overseas and Territories (Liot) group, which is a free electron in Parliament, should also vote to delay pension reform. “Liot is the author of the censure motion against the Borne reforms in 2023”recalled Harold Huwart, deputy of Eure-et-Loir. A motion was rejected by nine votes at that time. If all members of parliament respect their group’s voting instructions, there will be 214 votes in favor of article 45 bis of the Social Security finance bill.
Groups voting against: LFI, LR and Horizons
The deputies of the La France insoumise group will vote against article 45 bis. From their point of view, suspension of pension reform does not mean repeal. “In reality, this is not a suspension, it is a small delay of one year in the reform of pensions at age 64. This means that this vote, if it takes place, will confirm retirement at age 64”explains Aurélie Trouvé, LFI representative for Seine-Saint-Denis, in franceinfo. This position was criticized by socialist deputies. “We see that the rebels have a global strategy: not to allow a political victory for the PS”one of which is annoying. “Gathering crumbs is not a political victory. We are not here to ask for alms”replied Aurélien Le Coq, LFI representative from the North.
Republicans were loyal to their presidential program, which included raising the legal retirement age, as well as their voting instructions in favor of Elisabeth Borne’s reforms, although the reforms were not followed by the entire group at the time. LR deputies voted against deletion in committee. “We cannot make the French believe that they no longer need to work collectively”defended Justine Gruet, Jura’s deputy. “Overall, we should vote against”, the LR deputy promised franceinfo, assuring that he will keep a close eye on the evolution of the debate. “Deciding in advance on a text whose final version is not known is too risky”he assessed, considering himself “burned by the experiences of the last few weeks”.
In Horizons, although the formation had ministers in Lecornu’s government, “majority group” intend to choose opposed to suspending reforms, said internal party source Edouard Philippe. Therefore, elected officials have proposed an amendment to remove this suspension. In committee, the latter was rejected, the group’s deputies voted against article 45 bis. “We cannot compromise without telling the truth. Announcing the suspension of reforms as if they were a political outcome, when demographic fundamentals have not changed, will create a dangerous illusion”estimates Nathalie Colin Oesterlé, representative of Moselle. The group meeting on Wednesday was to finalize the final positions “by paying attention to each other’s development”. If, in theory, all members of the groups mentioned above followed the general trend of their camp, then the number of votes against the suspension would reach 163 votes.
Groups that are undecided or silent
Environmentalists and communists wavered between voting against and abstaining. A decision will be taken at a group meeting on Wednesday morning. “Nothing has been decided at this time”assured a deputy environmentalist to franceinfo on Monday. Like PS, the group is waiting for signs for a long career. However, he did not feel tied to the socialists’ choices. “Left-wing groups are not intended to be a driving force in PS negotiations,” insisted last week an environmental lawmaker. Beyond the substance of the text, the issue is also the unity of the left with the aim of forming future alliances in the upcoming elections. Voting against means isolating the PS and voting against it means clashing with the LFI.
If the ecologists and communists decide to vote against, then the forces will be balanced between yes and no, thus placing the EPR group and the MoDem group in the position of mediator. “If any of them wish to express their dissatisfaction with the return of reforms that have harmed them politically, they will risk derailing those reforms.”comments an executive advisor, so moving “non-censorship agreement” between PS and Sébastien Lecornu.
Aware of this danger, the Ministry of Democracy will correct its position on Wednesday morning at a group meeting. François Bayrou’s movement sets up two scenarios. According to a member of the centrist group, abstaining would be preferable. But the deputies of the Ministry of Demom “may consider voting in favor if a balance of power arises and poses a risk to the implementation of the measure and possible compromise”.
In the same spirit Gabriel Attal asked his troops, who are especially divided on this issue, to abstain in a video conference held Monday evening. “Gabriel Attal’s position will be widely followed”assured a Joint deputy for the Republic. “The consensus is very broad, everyone understands the benefits of having the same position”added a close friend of the former Prime Minister. But some decided to maintain their voice in opposition, such as EPR deputy Marc Ferracci, a personal friend of Emmanuel Macron, who reiterated his opposition to the suspension, especially among Opinion.
“Don’t expect me to vote for the abolition of this pension”, also threatened members of the EPR group on 14 October, the day Sébastien Lecornu promised to discuss Borne reforms to achieve non-censorship of the PS. He later explained to journalists that the suspension would pass without incident and as a result, he would be able to express his beliefs with complete freedom. A month later, that analysis seems a bit off. In the end, pension reform seems to be a path of the cross for Macronis’ deputies.
Finally, the Union of Rights for the Republic (UDR), an allied group of the National Rally, told franceinfo that there is no “no group decision has been taken yet”. That should be decided Wednesday morning. “We certainly won’t choose to delay reform, that’s almost certain.”added a party representative.
