Good morning, dear reader,
What kind of picture was it, almost ten years ago, when the French foreign minister signed the Paris climate agreement with a bang: Ministers and government officials from 195 countries raised their hands, embraced and hugged each other, some even shed tears. “Vive la planète!”, the then French President, François Hollande, exclaimed at the podium – “long live the planet!”
Yes, the planet will still be alive in 2025, but its health cannot be ignored: Despite the historic Paris climate agreement, he is still seriously ill. A doctor might diagnose Earth as a mixture of chronic fatigue and acute inflammation, with symptoms such as fever (global warming), high blood pressure (exceeding limits, such as deforestation) and organ damage (species extinction, pollution). However, patients do not receive the prescribed therapy, lifestyle changes, because its eight billion nursing staff does not sufficiently adhere to instructions.
As the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference begins today in Belém, Brazil, in the heart of the Amazon region, government officials and scientists must face this reality. The international community has yet to tap into a “lifeline,” as former EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called the Paris climate agreement. According to current UN estimates, the agreed goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees in the long term will be achieved in the 2030s; by 2100 the world temperature will reach plus 2.8 degrees if climate policy remains as half-hearted as it is now.
As glaciers melt, forest fires and hurricanes rage, and entire ecosystems face extinction, many governments don’t even submit their national climate plans on time. Other countries, such as the US under the “climate-denying” administration of Donald Trump, want to say goodbye to the Paris Agreement altogether. Instead of motivating each other, what applies is the principle of reason: If others don’t do anything, we won’t do anything either. Or in the words of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU): “It would be pointless if we became climate neutral only in Germany. Even if we did that today, nothing would change in the world tomorrow.”
The fact that such punishments anger climate change activists, but not the general public, is because priorities have changed. According to Eurobarometer surveys, in Germany and the EU only about one in ten people consider climate and the environment to be the two most pressing problems; in 2019 the number was one in five. In most countries, inflation, economic crises, migration and war determine the political agenda. Right-wing parties across Europe are using fears of a loss of prosperity to discredit climate policy as an elite project. Additionally, there are powerful lobbying organizations in the oil and gas industry that want to slow down the energy transition. This creates a dangerous indifference, or even denial, in the minds of the public that drives unambitious climate protection action.
It’s true: climate protection should not be too demanding. Measures such as increasing CO2 prices or mandatory modernization must be accompanied by social policies. And not only that: they also need to be better communicated politically. The best example of how not to do this is Habeck’s law of heating. Despite providing comprehensive financial assistance and a transition period, the community considers it an excessive burden. In completely rational terms, it would be beneficial for most households to switch to a heat pump. It’s just that humans don’t act like calculating machines. They need to be motivated to get out of their habits. They need someone who can give them confidence that what they are experiencing as a short-term turning point will improve their lives in the long term.
The desire to motivate people at the top of the federal government has so far been futile. Chancellor Merz must first motivate himself to consider the importance of climate protection. Instead of projecting a “unfortunately there is nothing we can do about this” mentality, he instead proudly presented the EU’s latest, at least somewhat ambitious, climate goals, namely reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90 percent by 2040 compared with 1990. The federal government could be at the helm of the world’s third-largest economy, rather than making the country even smaller than before, and showed that ecological restructuring and economic success do not have to be at odds with each other.
The country with the second strongest economy in the world shows how it works: China has long recognized climate transformation as a market opportunity and is investing heavily in renewable energy, electric mobility, battery storage and hydrogen technology. Although the country is still the world’s largest emitter of CO2, its emissions will likely start to decline in the coming years. So, there is definitely something moving in this world that should not be forgotten despite many legitimate concerns. Of course, no one is doing enough, but absent the Paris climate agreement, the planet would have to be moved to the intensive care unit even sooner. Before the global climate agreement, estimates of global warming were 4 to 5 degrees, not the current 2.8 degrees. And if everyone keeps the promises they’ve made, our temperature will still reach 1.8 degrees.
The best thing that the climate conference in Belem can produce is not a series of actions, but a new dynamic. A shared belief that we can turn things around even further – even if important leaders like the US withdraw for a while. The political winds could change again there. Until then, other countries must try to gain new power from what has been prevented.
No one expects new historic resolutions and celebrations like those in Paris, but at least a little more ambition and determination would be a good thing. Creative ideas like those emerging from Brazil’s host for a tropical forest fund aimed at slowing rainforest deforestation are a good start. And they show that we haven’t given up.
There is no more important date in German history than November 9: The first German Republic was proclaimed on this day in 1918. Five years later, Adolf Hitler tried to gain political power for the first time. On November 9, 1938, the National Socialists called for the destruction of Jewish shops and synagogues. With Kristallnacht, the persecution of Jews reached a new dimension. November 9 is also the day the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, paving the way for German unity.
