what we know about the draft peace plan negotiated between the United States and Russia

According to some international media, Kyiv has accepted proposals that provide for the transfer of territory to its neighbors and a reduction in the army to end the conflict. Many points of this unofficial plan remain unclear, and European countries are once again demanding to be included in negotiations with the Kremlin.

American diplomacy is in disarray over the Ukraine issue. Several international media, including Axios, Reuters and Financial Timesunveiled a draft peace plan in Ukraine prepared by the United States and discussed with Russia, before being presented in Kyiv on Wednesday 19 November. This plan mainly included the transfer of Ukrainian territory to Russia as well as the reduction of the Ukrainian army. Conditions close to Russian demand similar to a “capitulation” Ukraine, according to several diplomatic sources. Although the European Union does not appear to be taking part in this project, the head of EU diplomacy warned against it “For this plan to succeed, Ukraine and Europe must be involved”. Here’s what we know about this still very vague plan and about the ongoing negotiations.

A plan prepared by the United States together with Russia

The United States presented a draft peace plan to Ukraine on Wednesday, according to AFP and several international media outlets. The detailed 28-point plan is inspired by a model created to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, according to information from Axios, which was confirmed by NBC. It will be developed by American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as the head of American diplomacy, Marco Rubio, then discussed with Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s envoy.

The White House and Kremlin declined to comment on reports published in the media. “Ending complex and deadly wars like the one in Ukraine requires a serious and realistic exchange of ideas. said the American Secretary of State, to X. Without directly mentioning the draft peace plan, Marco Rubio assured that Washington “will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war, drawing on contributions from both sides of the conflict”.

A senior Ukrainian official confirmed to Reuters that Kyiv had received it “signal” regarding American proposals discussed with Russia. Ukraine had no role in preparing the proposal, the same source said. “The key to stopping the bloodshed and achieving lasting peace is that we work in coordination with all our partners and that American leadership remains effective and strong.”said Volodymyr Zelensky, without mentioning the plans, after a meeting in Ankara with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Details of these steps could be presented to Ukraine’s president on Thursday by two Pentagon envoys, Daniel Driscoll and Randy George, who are currently in Kyiv on separate missions, according to NBC.

The conditions are close to Russian requirements

Initial reports on the terms of the US peace plan suggest that they come close to meeting Russia’s demands to end the war. According to American media Axios, Ukraine should accept recognition of the annexation of Crimea and hand over full control of Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk provinces) to its neighbors. Ukraine still controls about 14.5% of the territory, according to the Institute for War Studies’ latest analysis. That’s not all: the current line of control will also be frozen in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, most of which are ravaged by war.

According to an American official quoted by Axios, the White House believes that Kyiv will likely lose the region if the war continues, and Therefore, it is in Ukraine’s interest to reach an agreement now.. An opinion that is far from unanimous. “The Institute for War Studies continues to believe that ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia and freezing the front lines in southern Ukraine would greatly benefit Russia”wrote the American research group.

The plan also provides for a limit on the size of the Ukrainian army by around 50% compared to the current military numbers and the rejection of all long-range weapons, according to a senior Ukrainian official quoted by AFP. In return, Ukraine would receive American security guarantees, with no specifics mentioned at this time.

Ukraine is in a difficult position

This revelation comes as Ukraine has just experienced one of the deadliest Russian attacks of the year, which left at least 26 people dead and 22 missing in Ternopil, on Tuesday to Wednesday night. These attacks targeted western regions of Ukraine, which are usually safer because they are far from front lines, such as the city of Lviv. “This is what Russia’s ‘peace plan’ really looks like”quipped the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Andrii Sybiha. The Russian offensive also accelerated in the east of the country, where Ukrainian troops had to retreat in the face of new Russian advances.

In addition to these military setbacks, Volodymyr Zelensky has had to deal with a massive corruption scandal that primarily affected his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Enough to further weaken his position and reduce his room for maneuver.

The European community demands to be included in the discussion

Although developments in the peace plan are under scrutiny on the international stage, several European political leaders have spoken out demanding their and Ukraine’s involvement in the discussions. “For this plan to succeed, Ukraine and Europe must be involved, that is very clear”announced on Thursday in Brussels by the EU’s diplomacy chief, Kaja Kallas.

“Peace cannot be surrender”, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, upon arriving in the Belgian capital to meet with his European counterparts. “The Ukrainian people will always reject any form of surrender”he insisted. “We want lasting peace accompanied by the necessary guarantees to prevent further aggression by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.”he recalled.