Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that he expects a response from Ukraine next Thursday regarding the peace plan his administration is putting together with Russia. The plan is highly unbalanced for Russia, as it fulfills many of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands, starting with territorial demands, and includes a series of conditions that Ukraine has long considered unacceptable. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has defined this moment, in which he must decide between a deeply unfavorable peace plan or one against the United States, as the most difficult in the country’s history. Putin said the plan was a “starting point.”
The plan was written in late October by Russian government special envoy Kirill Dmitriev and US government special envoy Steve Witkoff, then submitted first to Secretary of State Marco Rubio (a kind of Secretary of State) and then to Trump. This text is not yet definitive, in the sense that it can be changed according to the requests of the parties, but for the time being it has been reported by several American media. The model was a 20-point peace plan for the war in Gaza agreed to by Israel and Hamas, again at Trump’s urging.
What Russia got
The plan provides for the surrender of the entire Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in eastern Ukraine) to Russia, including parts that have not yet been conquered and therefore are not controlled by Russia. Crimea will be recognized as Russia’s possession, and in the Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia, new borders will be placed on the current front line: therefore, Russia will defend the occupied territories.
Russia will also get the gradual elimination of all economic sanctions agreed in recent years, will re-enter the economic circuit and will once again be invited to the G8 meeting (the world’s eight major economic powers). The plan also envisions a series of future economic collaborations between the United States and Russia: the two countries will be long-term partners in the fields of artificial intelligence and rare metals (with mining projects in the Arctic). The US administration will be the main manager of reconstruction in Ukraine, which will include new natural gas infrastructure, and will be involved in a development fund that will invest in technology companies, data centers and artificial intelligence, as well as mineral extraction and natural resource exploitation.
And what Ukraine (didn’t) get
In fact, the only positive outcome for Ukraine will be the end of the war: at the territorial level, Ukraine will give up almost everything, Russia will withdraw only a small part of the territory it occupies in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Ukraine will also have to accept a reduction in its army to a maximum of 600 thousand people: currently the number is around 800-850 thousand, before the war there were around 200 thousand. The surrender of the Donbas and the recognition of Crimea, as well as a significant reduction in troop numbers, are conditions that at least until now were considered unacceptable by Ukraine.
A February meeting at the White House between Zelensky, Trump and JD Vance, which went horribly wrong (AP Photo/Mystyslav Chernov)
The future of Ukraine
The plan calls for Ukraine to include in its constitution a commitment not to join NATO and for NATO to include a formal clause stating its commitment not to accept Ukraine. Ukraine will instead begin the process of joining the European Union, with a direct trade agreement (the EU was not consulted in the preparation of the plan). Reconstruction would be led by the United States, using Russia’s $100 billion in frozen funds, part of which Europe is considering using as a loan to Ukraine: another $100 billion would have to come from the European Union itself.
Guarantees for Ukraine
The plan stipulates that there will be no NATO or European troops in Ukraine and that warplanes will be based in Poland. Military assurances that Ukraine will not be attacked again remain unclear: second document cited by axio provides for the extension of NATO’s Article 5 to Ukraine. Therefore, any aggression against Ukraine would be considered an attack against other member states. According to the plan, a new invasion would “erase” Russia’s current territorial claims.
Another relevant point
Both sides would receive full amnesty for their actions during the war: therefore, it would be impossible to try Russian soldiers and officers for war crimes that had already occurred. New elections must be held in Ukraine within 100 days: this is something Putin has emphasized in the past, with a desire to replace Zelensky with a more accommodating president and government. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be operated under supervisionInternational Atomic Energy Agency and the energy produced will be split between the two countries.
There is also a section indicating that “all Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and prohibited”, which is Russian propaganda that has long described the invasion as a “denazification of Ukraine” operation. There are also a series of economic and financial conditions that appear to warrant US economic interests. Once the possibility of war is over, a “Peace Council” chaired by the United States should be created.
