With only four races remaining, the Formula 1 World Championship has become completely unpredictable. Three drivers in the fight: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, McLaren teammates, are separated by just one point and with Max Verstappen (Red Bull), the reigning champion, still lurking 36 points behind the leader. With the system in place since 2010, which awards 25 per win, any scenario is still possible.
For much of the year the battle has been between the two McLaren youngsters, seeking their first title, but after the summer break Verstappen joined the fray. The winner of the last four World Cups keeps his options alive after a great comeback.
The online prediction markets are a good indicator of the bets of those who follow the championship. In Polymarket, one of the largest, Norris is in the lead after the sensational victory in Mexico, where his rivals have lost ground: Verstappen is third and Piastri, fifth. In the last five races, the Briton has scored more points than his teammate and has regained the championship lead for the first time since the fourth round, held in Saudi Arabia.
Piastri is the one who arrives in better shape. He hasn’t been on the podium in four races and has had to bear the pressure of being the driver to beat for much of the season. His lowest point was the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where he crashed on the first lap and was forced to retire.
The one who has nothing to lose and knows what it means to be a champion is Verstappen. His first title, in 2021, was in fact snatched from Lewis Hamilton, who had just won the previous five world championships with Mercedes, in a film that ends with the last grand prix of the season. Of the last six races, the Dutchman has won three and finished on the podium in the remaining ones.
There are still 116 points up for grabs: 25 for each of the four races, plus the two sprints (in Brazil and Qatar), shorter tests which take place on the Saturday before qualifying and award eight points to the winner. The first battle will be this weekend in Brazil, where last year Verstappen took an epic victory in the rain after starting from 17th place. In the sprint, however, the winner was Norris.
The closest goal since 2010
To retain the title, the Dutchman must win as many races as possible and expect poor results from his rivals. If Verstappen wins them all and Norris is second, the Briton will be proclaimed champion. Furthermore, it wouldn’t be enough for the Red Bull driver if Piastri himself finished second in every test.
If he manages to achieve this, Verstappen would probably sign the greatest comeback in the history of Formula 1. Given that the current scoring system was established in 2010 – 25 points per victory – the most notable one was that of Sebastian Vettel in 2012. With seven races remaining, the German was 39 points behind Fernando Alonso, but he strung together four consecutive victories and ended up winning the World Championship by just three points, in an unforgettable final in Interlagos.
Another famous comeback occurred in 2007. Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) came into the final two races with 17 points less than Lewis Hamilton, when victory gave him 10. Two consecutive victories – in China and Brazil – and the collapse of McLaren allowed the Finn to win the title with a single point advantage over Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.
