Why mass deportation is just an illusion

The civil war in Syria is largely over – but what impact will this have on the more than one million Syrians living in Germany? Professor Daniel Thym, a lawyer specializing in migration law at the University of Konstanz, explains in the journal ZDF today when protected status no longer applies, why the courts are overloaded and why a realistic return policy may not work by force, but rather by voluntary offer.

Marietta Slomka: The argument that most of the war is over and people should go home now or at least no longer have protected status, and that the devastation in the country is nothing against it – is that true?

Daniel Tim: This is true to form. Of course, this must be checked in each case. We’re looking at: Is there still a civil war going on? If not, then the additional protection status that most people currently have will no longer exist.

However, authorities and courts are also looking into other matters. They check whether there is a risk of extreme poverty.

Beds represent simple accommodation. Bread represents basic nutrition and soap represents basic health care. And in at least some cases, authorities and courts have come to the conclusion: at least for young, single, working men who have local families to help them, it is reasonable to return to Syria.

slow: When you talk about case-by-case decisions, does that mean that, in principle, hundreds of thousands of lawsuits could be filed every year?

Thyme: That’s right. Any negative asylum decision and any revocation of a previous asylum decision can be challenged individually in court. This is a big deal.

Simply put, because the court has taken 15 months to decide on an asylum application. Simply because there are 180,000 lawsuits pending. If the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees went and revoked the protected status of 100,000 or 150,000 people, it would give rise to a lot of lawsuits, which would paralyze the courts for a while.

slow: Then let’s look at the numbers. There are more than one million Syrians or people of Syrian origin in Germany, but of these, 200,000 or 300,000 are German citizens. They will not be sent home or deported – unless they want to.

Thyme: Of course, they are allowed to stay in Germany, as is everyone with a German passport: we are free to decide where we are.

But this is not the only group that cannot be deported. We also have around 300,000 people who are working – and they can at any time apply for a different residence permit than the one they currently have as workers. And then you are also on the safe side legally.

And if we count those whose family members have German passports or other family members who work, then we quickly get 50 to 60 percent of Syrians who not only actually but legally have the right to live in Germany.

slow: And how do you realistically assess that?

Thyme: For years, Germany has had difficulty deporting people from all countries of origin. You just need to calculate it:

And even that, say experts working in this field, is an illusion that you can fly a plane with 50 people every day. So it’s very realistic, even if you arrange all the legal and logistical requirements: more than 5,000, 6,000, maybe 7,000 maximum deportations are impossible next year.

slow: Then you can come to the conclusion that politics gives rise to false expectations.

Thyme: That must be asked of the Chancellor. However, we still have the option to return voluntarily. And if you start deporting individual Syrians, then other Syrians will certainly also consider whether they should not accept the offer, which the state has made – “if you return voluntarily, then we will give you an entry fee of 1,000 euros, and of course also pay your travel costs” – whether they will accept the offer and then go home voluntarily.

Therefore, if you put together an attractive overall package, you can get more people to leave the country voluntarily. But things will remain like that: there will be a minority group, and the vast majority of Syrians will stay.

slow: Would it help if there was a chance to go home as an experiment? You can totally relate to it: you don’t know what to expect there. And when you leave the country, you lose your protected status.

Wouldn’t it make sense to say: you can think about this calmly, maybe discuss it again with your family and then maybe make a fresh start in your old home?

Thyme: If you ask me: yes. And that’s what I mean by the total package.

At the latest when the first deportation flights to Syria have begun, my recommendation to the federal government is: sit down, develop a comprehensive strategy, say which Syrians can definitely survive, and will definitely become the majority, and make attractive offers to other countries.

An exploration trip of two or three weeks without the risk of having your protected status revoked – but also a financial bargain.