Moscow attacks Ukraine’s energy grid almost daily. The aim was to carry out massive cuts and demoralize Ukrainians, who were preparing to spend their fourth winter in the war-torn country.
Will Russia succeed in demoralizing the Ukrainian population? This is a risk posed by the intensification of Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks, while winter and negative temperatures are already getting worse. Drone and missile attacks occur almost daily: on Monday, November 17, energy infrastructure in five regions of Ukraine was attacked by Russia, reports Ukrainian Pravdaforcing the authorities to take new electricity rationing measures.
This phenomenon is already known to Ukrainians, as the country enters its fourth winter war – the invasion begins in February 2022, at midnight. “Moscow has been attacking Ukraine’s critical infrastructure since 2014 (Donbass war and annexation of the Crimean peninsula)especially towards winter.recalled Mathieu Boulègue, associate consultant for the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank. Each meltdown puts Ukraine’s entire energy sector under pressure – and the repair work carried out by engineers never stops. In previous years, millions of residents were left without electricity during the coldest months.
But in recent weeks, “Russian attacks are becoming more diversified, more massive and more precise”observations of researcher Ulrich Bounat, writer Hybrid War in Ukraine, What are the Prospects?. “Moscow is able to target substations and power plants more precisely, targeting sensitive equipment that is more difficult to replace.” A relatively new fact worries the authorities: Russia is now heavily attacking its country’s gas infrastructure, “with a desire to drain production capacity” Ukraine, the specialist said.
Moscow initially avoided touching Ukraine’s pipeline network, which is used to transport Russian gas across Europe. But on January 1, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government terminated the agreement linking it to Russia on this issue. The Kremlin’s response was swift and devastating “40% of Ukraine’s gas production capacity” Last February and March, explained Sergii Koretskyi, executive director of Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas giant, in New York Times.
But gas is vital for Ukrainians, especially as thermometers often drop below zero in December, January and February. Fossil energy is the heating source for 80% of homes in the country, Sergii Koretskyi further explains. “Large units provide heating and electricity supply to buildings and entire cities, the system is highly centralized and therefore makes it very vulnerable”explained Ulrich Bounat. This system, which largely dates back to Soviet times, is well known in Moscow, but this does not make it any less vulnerable to attack.
Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities are preparing for the worst winter since the start of the war. “The approaching winter poses new risks for Ukrainians as increasing attacks on the energy grid undermine efforts to keep homes, schools and health centers warm”warned the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in a note published in early November.
It’s simple, “Russia wants Ukraine to no longer have access to gas”warns Volodymyr Omelchenko, an energy issues expert at the Razumkov think tank, with Deutsche Welle. “Given the intensity of attacks over the past two months, it is clear that Russia aims to completely destroy Ukraine’s energy system”went even further, Maxim Timchenko, general director of DTEK, a private Ukrainian energy company, told the BBC. “Russian attacks are increasingly hitting nuclear power plant substations to try to disconnect them from the power grid, the aim is to completely destroy the system”Ulrich Bounat emphasized.
Russian strategy “does not overlap with military objectives”But “aimed only at disrupting the heating season and preventing Ukrainian homes from getting warm in winter”, analyzes Sergii Koretskyi, this time with Deutsche Welle. Moscow tried “to demoralize the Ukrainian people, exhausted by almost four years of war, to achieve surrender, even though it is not very realistic”agrees Ulrich Bounat.
Specialists are concerned about other goals that have occurred “flashy” with the strikes intensifying in recent months.
“There is a desire to try to drive out the Ukrainian population, and make the country completely uninhabitable.”
Ulrich Bounat, author of “Hybrid War in Ukraine”at franceinfo
“Targeting energy systems, such as sustained attacks on the front lines, including small villages of no military importance located several kilometers away, could serve this purpose.”
Facing Russia’s attack, Ukraine tried to fight back. Ukrainian engineers have acquired many skills since the start of the conflict and are able to quickly repair energy installations. “They did what was necessary to ensure that the network did not completely fail, this caused significant power outages, sometimes lasting as long as twelve hours. They also managed to repair, but without compensating for all the losses”determined Ulrich Bounat. Ukraine is also working on it “decentralize their energy systems”added the expert, so that each building can be independent from the network.
Repairing damaged installations requires effort, funds… and gas reserves, as Ukraine remains heavily dependent on the help of its European partners to restore its capabilities. Volodymyr Zelensky’s government has signed several partnerships with countries in recent months aimed at importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to cover the shortfall. The latest was signed in Athens (Greece) on Sunday. The total is almost the same “two billion euros” who were hired, according to the president. In early November, Ukraine’s gas stocks reached 28% of the country’s capacity, “above 2024 weekly levels”explains the Bruegel think tank.
Apart from gas, Kiev can also count on aid from European Union countries. In March 2022, Ukraine was connected to other European networks. “Kyiv’s allies, including France, are also providing essential materials, such as generators for hospitals”recalls Ulrich Bounat. Last summer, Ukraine secured a loan package from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank and Norway worth nearly $2.8 billion for its energy system, reports Euromaiden Press. How to survive another winter? “The goal (from Russia) is to plunge Ukraine into darkness. Our task is to preserve light”launched Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko on Telegram at the end of October.
