Witkoff’s tips for Russians“Trump flattery is not a sustainable strategy”
It’s not just the Kremlin that likes to mess with the US president. European countries are using the same tactics to prevent Donald Trump from carrying out the worst in his plans for Ukraine, said security expert Rafael Loss. However, different tactics are needed to find a long-term solution for Kiev.
ntv.de: US special envoy Steve Witkoff told Russia, according to media reports, that they should praise Donald Trump for imposing their ideas on Ukraine’s future. Does the US President make decisions based solely on such flattery?
Rafael Loss: Maybe not based on that alone. But this appears to be the main mechanism by which Trump is persuaded to take certain positions. This is not something the Russians needed Witkoff or that they themselves would admit. Because that is also how NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European countries deal with Trump. This is a realization that was achieved during Trump’s first term in office.
So European countries could use the same trick to prevent Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio from doing their worst at the Geneva summit?
At least that will play a role in consultations. European countries also used adulation of Trump to make their positions acceptable. And they know that to achieve peace, Trump needs European and Ukrainian support. Nothing can be achieved without their approval.
So Trump must continue to fail because he wants to take decisions outside of Europe and Ukraine’s control?
For at least minimal compromise, Trump needs Europe and Ukraine. However, there are widespread fears that Trump, in a moment of extreme frustration, will end US intelligence support and arms purchases for Ukraine. That’s why everyone should play this US President game at every opportunity. But just because no decisions were made against the wishes of the European countries and Ukraine, this does not mean that the decisions made were in their favor to end the war – no decisions were made that could have brought an end to the war any closer. This state of uncertainty has a big impact, especially for Ukraine, but it is better than the surrender that Russia demands and has not given up since February 2022.
European countries are already trying to replace American surveillance satellites. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius is sure of this: “If Ukraine decides to continue, then it will continue.” So is Kyiv no longer dependent on Washington?
Military support from American intelligence agencies is irreplaceable, especially at the operational level. This would make defending Ukraine much more difficult if operational situational awareness and support for operational planning of long-range strikes with drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles were lost. And it will be more difficult for Ukraine to identify early where new ground attacks and airstrikes might be launched.
Can’t Europe intervene in this?
Europeans can only provide a selective overview. However, they lack persistent satellite reconnaissance, utilizing intelligence findings from satellites, as well as from other sources – and ultimately can be used in the military decision-making process.
Does this mean that every time Trump launches a new peace initiative, Europe must first fear the worst?
You have to assume so. Trump’s flattery is not a sustainable strategy. So far, Trump has been persuaded not to look away completely. But that doesn’t mean things like this will continue forever. The only thing that remains is Trump’s enormous personal interest in normalizing bilateral relations with Russia. Trump still believes he can gain economic benefit from this. This is a personal and business deal and is not in the interests of the United States. With the prospect of a deal, Russia persuaded Trump to enter talks on Ukraine.
Some Republicans are now calling for Witkoff to be fired. Trump defended his envoy and claimed it was a normal negotiating tactic. Are Trump’s statements simply influenced by his party – or does he have to act?
So far it appears that Russian hardliners in the Republican Party have no recourse to oppose Trump’s actions. The reason is that Trump is still letting Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner hold talks. Regarding positions on Russia and Ukraine, there is clearly no coherent position from the US government.
How do you recognize it?
Marco Rubio, who would play a central role on issues such as national security adviser and secretary of state in another administration, apparently was not informed of Trump’s decision before the 28-point plan was unveiled. Rubio was then sent to Geneva to retrieve the items. In American government, the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing. This creates problems for Ukraine and Europe – and even for Russia. But Russia also benefits from this ambiguity. Vladimir Putin’s goal is to give up on Ukraine – whether he achieves this through diplomatic channels and Trump’s involvement or by continuing the war seems irrelevant to him.
What long-term strategies can be used for Europe to succeed in negotiations on Ukraine against Russia and the United States?
Europe does not have its own Ukraine strategy. Both Berlin and Brussels effectively shifted responsibility for Ukraine and Russia strategy to the US at the start of the war. This worked well under the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, although Biden also did not specify any strategic goals. It’s about driving in plain sight and not incurring untold risks for as long as possible. This approach is still used by Europe today.
Does this still work now?
With Trump as US President, strategic outsourcing to the US is no longer reliable. However, so far they have not been able to support the rhetoric that continues to be promoted in Europe with the necessary resources for Ukraine. European countries have not yet put Ukraine in a position to exert the necessary pressure on Russia and enter into serious negotiations with the US and Russia.
Lea Verstl talks to Rafael Loss
